BEST LINE: Betfair -107

POSTED AT 10:30 AM EST.

Nick Martinez is 1-2 with a 3.22 ERA in six games started while T.J. House is 0-1 with a 3.79 ERA in three games started. Furthermore, House is 0-1 on the road with an ERA of 4.38. The Rangers are at home, yet there are some sharp outfits that have the Indians at -115 while most others has the game listed at a pick'em. When said sharp sportsbooks “take a position” it should not be ignored. Truth is, Martinez is living a very charmed life that isn’t going to last. In 45 innings, Martinez has a brutal BB/K split of 20/21. His 5.96 xERA is the biggest discrepancy between xERA and actual ERA in the majors. Martinez’s 7.70 xERA over his last two starts is the worst in the majors and his 1.84 WHIP over his last four starts is also the worst in the majors. Martinez was rushed to the big leagues and it is showing, as he only has 42 innings pitched at the AA level and is now completely overmatched at this level. He’s been the beneficiary of an unsustainable 88% strand rate and hard hit balls being hit right at people. Pay no attention whatsoever to Martinez’s ERA, as even Chris Angel would have a hard time making this illusion work.

House has showed excellent skills so far in his brief stay. He has an elite groundball/line-drive/fly ball profile of 60%/20%/20%. He also has an elite swing and miss rate of 13%. House has a long way to go to be considered anywhere near elite because the sample size (19 IP) is way too small to get an accurate reading but one thing we know for sure is that he’s been 100 times better than his mound opponent. Indians figure to score a bunch today and we doubt the Rangers will keep pace.