BEST LINE: Pinnacle +104

Posted at 11:00 AM EST

Sam Deduno is very often a live underdog but as the chalk he has absolutely no value whatsoever. Deduno has six pure quality starts in 13 tries. He keeps inducing groundballs at a staggering rate but there isn't much else here to like. His subpar k rate limits his upside and while his control has made strides, his baseline says that can't be trusted. Over his last five starts covering 28 frames, Deduno has a weak BB/K split of 11/17. Over his last three starts, he’s walked eight and struck out eight. Deduno is never constantly ahead in the count. He falls behind hitters 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1 and his WHIP dramatically fluctuates from game to game. Deduno remains one of the highest risk/reward pitchers in baseball and when he’s favored that risk increases. If the Astros don’t help him out, they’ll knock him out early.

Colin McHugh just keeps getting better. This guy has ace written all over him. McHugh had an excellent showing in May with 9.4 K’s per nine and a 46% groundball rate. His 3.19 xERA in May confirms that there was no luck involved. Overall, McHugh has an exceptional BB/K split of 54/14 in 50 innings. His high strikeout rate is backed by an elite 13% swing and miss rate. He has great command against both LH and RH bats. His key has been two dominant pitches, a slider (16% swing and miss rate) and curveball (18% swing and miss rate). In addition, his four-seam fastball (10% swing and miss rate) and changeup (8% swing and miss rate) are more than just show pitches. What makes McHugh even more appealing here is that the Twinkies have never seen him before. McHugh should not be a pup against Deduno…EVER. Invest.