BEST LINE: Pinnacle +131

Posted at 11:00 AM EST

It may surprise you to learn that the Mets lead the NL in runs scored on the road with 153. That’s third in the majors behind Oakland and Toronto. The closest team to them in the NL is the Dodgers with 146 and now the Mets get an opportunity to do more damage against Tim Lincecum. Lincecum is a pitcher in trouble. He comes into this start with a 5.01 ERA and having walked 20 batters over his past 29 frames. He also has one of the worst WHIPS (1.58) among starters and his dominant start/disaster split of 50%/50% reveals just how high a risk he really is. As a significant favorite, Lincecum is pure fade material.

Zack Wheeler is the opposite. Wheeler’s 2-5 W/L record and 4.23 road ERA makes him a strong, buy-low candidate. Wheeler’s 94-mph four-seam fastball velocity is the sixth-highest among qualified NL starters. Over his last trhee starts, Wheeler has allowed two runs or less in all of them. He has 69 K’s in 69 innings and his 16% swing and miss rate over his last three starts was the second highest in the majors over a three start span. Wheeler’s groundball rate is increasing and is now at an elite 54% on the season. Over his last three starts, that GB rate was 57%. Zack Wheeler has outstanding raw stuff and is a pitcher on the rise. He’s allowed just six hits over his past 13 frames and over his last four starts his ERA has dropped from 4.89 to its current 3.89. We’re all about playing value and this might be the best value play on today’s board.