Houston @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA -1 +120 over Houston

BEST LINE: Pinnacle -1 +120

Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

2:10 PM EST. Scott Feldman doesn’t walk a lot of batters but that’s like saying Marcel Dionne can still skate. In 53 innings this season, Feldman has struck out a measly 25 batters. His swing and miss rate is a very low 6% and it’s only a matter of time before he finds himself on another team, the waiver wire or in the bullpen. Over his last four starts covering 20.1 innings, Feldman has surrendered 38 hits and 18 runs. He has posted a WHIP of 1.83 to go along with an ERA of 6.84 over the past month. Furthermore in two day games this year, Feldman is 0-2 with an ERA of 7.30 and an oppBA of .304. Feldman’s skills are all trending the wrong way and his margin for error keeps getting thinner.

Kyle Gibson has suddenly appeared on our radar because his under the hood stats have improved in a big way. Here’s a guy that went 2-4 with a 6.53 ERA in 51 innings last year and has a 4.35 ERA this year after 11 starts. Called up on June 24th of last season, this former top prospect has not come close to expectations but he’s a student of the game that has started to figure it out. Gibson is tall at 6’6” and uses his height and arm slot effectively to pitch downhill and keeps his fastball low in the zone. Gibson uses both a two-seam and four-seam fastball that generally works in the 89-94 mph range. He induces tons of groundballs and can effectively pitch to contact and get hitters out early. He also has the ability to wipe out hitters with an above average slider and excellent change-up that features high-quality sink. At his best, Gibson has three above average offerings that he throws for strikes. His groundball rate on the year is 53% but over his past five starts that has risen to 59%. Over his last three starts, Gibson has not issued a single walk. He only has 30 K’s in 62 innings but that’s misleading because his 11% swing and miss rate screams that his K rate is much lower than it should be. Kyle Gibson has the best raw stuff of any starter on the Twins and it’s not close. He’s a pitcher whose stock may soar and now is the time to buy low. There are seeds of something great here. 



Our Pick

MINNESOTA -1 +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

Cincinnati +124 over San Diego
Washington +165 over Houston
Cleveland +152 over Houston