BEST LINE: Pinnacle +126

Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

The Phillies snapped a six-game losing streak with an 8-0 victory in the opener last night and that takes a big load off their shoulders. Remarkably, Philadelphia has now defeated the Reds in three straight this year while outscoring them 28-4 over that span. Roberto Hernandez doesn’t have great stats but what he does have is a decent strikeout rate (47 K’s in 58 innings) combined with a high groundball rate of 52%. In fact, Hernandez is posting his best strikeout totals since his Fausto days. He’ll now face a Reds’ team that his batting .222 over their last 10 games and that has scored three runs at home over their last three games.

Alfredo Simon has been one of the bigger surprises early on in 2014. After going almost three years without a MLB start, the 33-year-old has a 7-3 record, a 3.03 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through nine starts. However, Simon’s beneath the surface stats tell a different story. Simon has been helped by plenty of good luck with a low 24% hit rate and a unsustainable 80% strand rate. His xERA points to some serious regression. Simon’s 6% swing and miss rate and his groundball/fly-ball profile over his past five starts of 42%/37% suggest he’s walking a very fine line. Simon's age and skill profile cast doubt he can keep up the hot start for much longer. ERA should correct once the luck factors straighten out and there isn't much room for growth this late in his career. Simon's high wire act is one to fade and we’re on it.