BEST LINE: Pinnacle over 8½ -114

POSTED at 9:00 AM EST. 

Wily Peralta has a 2.73 ERA after 11 starts and because of that low ERA we get a very beatable number here. Peralta’s in for some serious ERA regression and now is the time to take advantage before the market catches up. Peralta does not have a varied pitch mix. He’s a two pitch pitcher with a fastball and slider. Two-pitch pitchers rarely have long-term success at this level. Hitters have a 50% chance of “guessing” correctly and probably a 75% chance when he’s behind in the count. Peralta’s low ERA is a direct result of an unsustainable 84% strand rate, which is the highest among all starters in the majors with eight starts or more. It doesn’t take long for major league hitters to figure out ordinary pitchers and Peralta is as ordinary as they come. It’s only a matter of time before those stranded runners start crossing the plate and these hot-hitting Twins, with 10 hits or more in six of their last seven games are very likely going to cash in a bunch of them.

Then there’s Kevin Correia. Correia is 1-4 at Target Field with an ERA of 7.09. He also comes into this start with a 1.54 WHIP and a home oppBA of .312. He is consistent though, as his oppBA on the road is .313. In 33 innings at Target Field, Correia has struck out 13 batters. His swing and miss rate at home is 3%, which is the lowest in the majors of any pitcher with one start or more. If there was a live GM draft with 150 starters (five on each team x 30 teams), thrown into a pool, Kevin Correia would be chosen 150th by all 30 GM’s. If he throws a good game it’s pure luck because this stiff is nothing but batting practice out there and it would come as no surprise if the Brew Crew went over this number on their own.