BEST LINE: Pinnacle -108

The Orioles have scored 17 runs over their past two games and last night’s 8-3 win was actually a flattering score to the Rangers. Baltimore out-hit Texas 17-7 and left 11 runners stranded otherwise the score would’ve been closer to 15-3. Now the O’s will face one of the worst pitchers in the game with the most misleading ERA in the game. Nick Martinez has a 2.75 ERA after 10 appearances with five of those coming as a starter. Pay no attention to that. Martinez has a pathetic BB/K split of 17/20 in 39 innings. He has an awful groundball/fly-ball split of 33%/45%. Martinez was forced into action because of all the injuries to the Rangers rotation but take note that he made the jump from Double AA to the majors and his actual ERA is in for a big correction. Martinez comes into this start with the worst xERA (6.88) of any pitcher in MLB that has made five starts or more. His swing and miss rate is a brutal 5%. He’s often behind in the count and it’s only a matter of time before he gets battered. Nick Martinez may not make it out of the third inning here.

We could tell you all about Bud Norris but it’s not relevant because this choice has absolutely nothing to do with him. We get outstanding value fading a struggling Rangers team with Nick Martinez on the hill and we’ll keep fading Martinez when the price allows us to, as it does here.