BEST LINE: Pinnacle +138

The Brewers took the opener last night 6-2 but they were outhit 12-9 and it was a case of good luck versus bad luck, as Minnesota had numerous chances to score while Milwaukee’s contact with runners on found some holes. We mention this because the Twins have had 10 hits or more in four of their last five games and the only game that didn’t occur in over that stretch was against Masahiro Tanaka of the Yanks. Minnesota has another good chance here of doing some damage here against Yovani Gallardo. After being a model of SP consistency throughout his career, things fell apart for Gallardo in 2013. He posted his first 4.00+ ERA while his strikeout total plummeted. Through 11 starts in 2014, Gallardo has a 3.56 ERA, so it may appear like he’s finding his old groove. Don’t buy into that, as his skills say this is the same version of Gallardo we saw in 2013. Gallardo's K rate, which was once his biggest strength, continues to plummet. A fading 6% swing and miss rate doesn't give much hope for a rebound either. Gallardo’s xERA of 4.54 over his last five starts doesn't believe in an ERA rebound either. With an unsustainable 83% strand rate, Gallardo’s skill set has "4.00 ++ ERA" written all over it, making him one of the most overvalued pitchers in the game.

Samuel Deduno has filthy stuff and can absolutely dominate anyone when he’s on. The problem is inconsistency, as you never know which version will show up. However, what we do know is that Deduno has held right handed batters to a .219 BA and .580 OPS, both of which are elite levels. He also has an elite 55% groundball rate and elite 17% line-drive rate. Unlike Gallardo, Deduno has been EXTREMELY unlucky with his strand rate, which sits at 71% for the year and 65% over his last five starts. Deduno is so close to being an elite pitcher but be warned that’s always been the case with him. He can never seem to make that one small tweak to get him to that level but again, he’s capable of dominating at any time. As the chalk, Deduno doesn’t hold much value but as a pooch in this price range, he holds it all over Gallardo.