BEST LINE: Pinnacle +108

Jake Arrieta has made just five starts this year and only one of them has been of the pure quality variety. Last season, Arrieta went 5-4 with a 4.58 ERA in 75 IP split between the Orioles and Cubs. Scouts have been waiting four years for this guy to break out and one has to wonder if the league swap will make it happen. Well, he has posted a better groundball% in the NL along with more K’s but he's still issuing too many walks and his dominant start/disaster start split shows he's still not a dominant starter. At this point, he's at risk of becoming long relief fodder or an AAAA player. Arietta still has a WHIP of 1.50, which is right in line with his career WHIP of 1.43 in 435 major-league innings. He’s walked 193 batters in his career, which is the real issue here because the early reports are strong winds blowing out at Wrigley tonight and should that come to pass, you don’t want to be spotting juice with a pitcher that is guaranteed to issue some free passes. Arrieta is too big a risk for our liking, especially when you consider that he pitches for a team that as the second lowest batting  average (.231) in the majors.

The Mets just took four of five in Philadelphia and would’ve swept had it not been for a blown save in the ninth inning in the second game. The Mets have now won six of seven. Zack Wheeler has not his stride yet but he’s getting closer. An up-and-down first month in the majors last year was followed by eight dominant starts in a 10-start span. We’re seeing more of that this year, as Wheeler is becoming dominant again. He’s coming off a 6.1 inning, four hit, one-run performance in Philly in which he walked none and struck out nine. Over his last five starts, covering 29 frames, Wheeler has struck out 30 batters with an elite swing and miss rate of 12%. A slow start plus a high hit percentage of 36% has Wheeler’s ERA inflated at 4.31. His 94-mph four-seam fastball velocity in May was the sixth-highest among qualified NL SP. This future #1 starter could make strides quickly now, as he’s showing all the signs of doing so and there is no way he deserves to be a pooch against Arrieta and the Cubbies. Wrong side favored.