BEST LINE: Pinnacle over 8½ -107

Totals can be a bit tricky at times when we’re talking about venues with retractable roofs because wind conditions, temperatures, humidity and barometric readings play a huge role in the outcome of games. That all becomes a non-factor when the roof is closed and the status for the roof today at Miller Park is unknown at the time of this writing. That said, our bet will stand for now but if the conditions become extremely favorable for the pitchers, we may buy it back. If conditions become favorable for hitter’s, we’ll be on at a great price.

Kyle Gibson has made 10 starts on the season and only three of those have been of the pure quality variety. Gibson is coming off two quality starts in his past three games but don’t be fooled by them, as they were both in extremely favorable pitching conditions at home with the winds blowing in at 15 MPH and 13 MPH respectively. In 10 career road starts, Gibson is 2-5 with a 6.34 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. In five road starts this season, Gibson is 1-3 with an ERA of 7.77 after allowing 27 hits in 22 innings (oppBA of .297) and walking 10 batters. Three of those 27 hits went yard. Gibson has just 20 starts in his brief career. He went 2-4 with a 6.53 ERA in 51 innings last year. Nov 2011 TJS cost him all of 2012 and returned in 2013 to decent 1H results in the minors that earned him a call-up to the majors, which had disastrous results. His second half shows the downside of a pitcher who doesn't miss bats and lacks pinpoint control. Gibson will now face a Brewers team that leads the majors in several offensive categories and is the hottest offense in baseball over the past 10 games with a BA of .312 and 62 runs scored.

From The Trop to Wrigley to Texas, Matt Garza has been good for double-digit wins and an ERA below 4.00 no matter where he calls home but all those trips to the DL seem to have taken a toll. Garza has just two wins and six quality starts in 11 starts. He’s allowed three runs or more in six straight and should be allow that many or more here, this game should sail over the total. Garza isn’t getting stronger either. He’s allowed three jacks over his last 13 innings, his groundball rate is in decline while his WHIP is on the rise and now sits at an unacceptable 1.32. Garza comes into this start with an ERA of 4.84 and there is nothing in his profile suggesting a turnaround anytime soon.