BEST LINE: Pinnacle -113

We’re not in the habit of playing favorites but the price on this one is cheap enough for us to make an exception, as value does not always come in underdogs. The value here is in the pitching match-up, which hugely favors the Red Sox. Last year, John Lackey shed extra pounds and distractions in driven return from TJS and went on to post his strongest skills in years. Ks and groundballs were plentiful in the first half and a 69%-0% dominant start/disaster start split brought him home in the 2H. Constants were a career-best control and a reliable ERA. With a clean arm and a clear head, Lackey has been even better this year. In 72 frames, Lackey has an outstanding BB/K split of 14/68. He has an elite 18% swing and miss rate over his last four starts. In 25.2 innings on the road, Lackey has a BB/K split of 2/24 with an xERA of 2.97. Lackey has not allowed a run in 13.1 straight innings.

Justin Masterson is a different story. His groundball-inducing ways continue to be a given and sit at 59% this season. However, the warning signs regarding Masterson could cover several pages but we’ll point out the most glaring. After an inconsistent 2012 campaign, Masterson seemed to put it all together last season, posting a 3.45 ERA in 193 innings. He made a huge gain in his strikeout rate (17.6 percent to 24.3 percent) while allowing just four home runs all season. Consequently, that 3.45 ERA was accompanied by an xERA of 3.35, which ranked 25th among starters. Masterson’s control became a second half issue and then an oblique strain effectively shelved him in September and he hasn’t been the same since. In his first outing of the year on March 31 at Oakland, Masterson’s average four-seam fastball velocity was 90.1 mph and his average sinker was 88.7, which was a big drop from his final start of 2013, when he was at 94.7 and 90.8, respectively. That loss of velocity trend has continued all year. Last season, Masterson hit 94 MPH or higher an average of just under 18 times per start. Masterson's average four-seam velocity has broken 92 in a start once this season, and his sinker -- Masterson's go-to pitch-- has not averaged higher than 89.3 mph in a start this season, after sitting above 90 in 32 of 33 games in 2013. It's not just a velocity issue either. Masterson has long dealt with a platoon split, to the point of many thinking he'd ultimately be a reliever. From 2009-12, Masterson limited right-handed batters to a .611 OPS, but left-handers were at .800. In 2013 he seemed to fix this issue, limiting lefties to a .248 batting average and .698 OPS, while getting even better against righties, as well (.182/.507). But those issues with left-handed batters have cropped up again, and through his 12th start, they are hitting .319 with a .919 OPS. Masterson isn’t fooling anyone out there. Over his last four starts he’s walked 13 and struck out 10. He’s not only missing the plate, he’s afraid to come at hitters because they are raking him over the coals. Clearly, Masterson's year leading into free agency is off to a rough start and it's because of three distinct issues - an alarming drop in velocity, an inability to neutralize left-handed batters and playing in front of a poor defense as a groundball-heavy pitcher. Justin Masterson is a pitcher in peril and we’re all over it.