BEST LINE: Sports Interaction +160

Mark Buehrle leads the majors in wins with nine and those victories are supported by his 2.33 ERA. However, Buehrle’s numbers are not supported by his skills and we can guarantee you 100% that Buehrle will not be able to maintain that low ERA all year. Buehrle’s been greatly aided by an 81% strand rate. His 1.23 WHIP is actually higher than the league average, meaning he’s allowing more base-runners than more than half the starters in this league. He has just 43 K’s in 73 innings and his swing and miss rate is also pedestrian at just 6%. This matchup does not favor Buerhle either, as the Royals have struck out the least amount of times in MLB so Buehrle will need a whole lot of good fortune to escape the inevitable jams he’ll be in here. Buehrle’s xERA of 4.13 says some rough starts are forthcoming and the possibility of that happening here looks high.

Jeremy Guthrie is 0-2 over his last three starts but his ERA of 2.57 over that span says he deserved better. We’re not going to sugarcoat this and say that Guthrie is a better option than Buehrle because Guthrie’s chance of blowing up is probably greater than Buehrle’s. However, for whatever reason, Guthrie has had huge success at this venue over the past three years with a .194 BAA and a 0.47 ERA over three starts covering 19 innings. That may or may not hold up but Kansas City has outstanding relief and we’re betting that Buehrle gets tagged for some hits and runs. Remember, always buy low and sell high. Mark Buehrle’s stock is soaring right now, making us sellers in this market. This line is around +140 at most places but we found a +160 at SIA, so get in on that big overlay sooner rather than later.