BEST LINE: Pinnacle over 8½ -102 

Last season Scott Feldman shaved more than a run off his 2012 ERA even as his walk and strikeout rates both went in the wrong direction. This year his walks are down but so too are his strikeouts in a big way. Feldman has 22 K’s in 48 innings, meaning he’s striking out roughly one batter every four innings. In Feldman’s last start at pitcher-friendly Kansas City, he went six full and did not strike out a single batter. Feldman has allowed 27 hits over his last three starts covering just 15 innings. His 3.02 ERA is not close to being supported by his skills. Feldman’s 1.71 WHIP over his last four starts does not coincide with an ERA just above three. Feldman does keep ball on ground... except when it flies out of park and with his tiny margin for error he could use a home that suppresses HR. Unfortunately for him, Minute Maid is not the place. If there was ever a pitcher in line for a serious ERA regression, Scott Feldman is it.

The Orioles have lost Wei-Yin Chen’s last two games by scores of 8-7 and 7-6. Chen allowed five runs in both games and surrendered four jacks combined. After 10 starts, Chen has a WHIP of 1.41 and a BAA of .306. He’s been unable to keep runners off base the entire season and this is a park that is unforgiving to pitchers with a high line-drive rate and that applies here. Chen’s line-drive rate over his last three starts is a troubling 38% and that’s the highest in the majors over a three-start stretch. The Astros .277 batting average over the last seven games is 5th best in the major leagues and they figure to at least get three or four here. The first three games of this series have all gone under the total, which has created a lower number today. We’ll look to take advantage of what we trust is a very beatable total here.