BEST LINE: Pinnacle -1 +106

Before his first start of the year, we noted that Sonny Gray had 3.00 ERA upside. In his first 10 starts, Gray has made that projection seem conservative—he’s 5-1 with an ERA of to 2.31. Gray’s hit % and strand % say that his ERA will rise slightly but xERA shows that his skills remain as strong as in his rookie year. Gray boosted his K rate when he was in AAA in 2013 and he’s maintained that level in the majors. He also keeps the ball on the ground. Half of his games are in pitching-friendly O.co Coliseum but with so few fly balls, it doesn’t make much of a difference. Gray continues to dominate right-hand hitters. At 24 and coming off his first exposure to major league hitting, it wouldn’t have been surprising to see Gray occasionally struggle this year but that’s not been the case. With his 67%/0% dominant start/disaster start split, he’s avoided the disasters and frequently been dominant. This kid can pitch.

Once again, we’re going to fade Jared Weaver because no matter what people think, say or read, the numbers for Weaver just do not add up to his 2.99 ERA. Weaver’s groundball/fly-ball split is 36%/49%. That suggests balls will start leaving the yard more frequently. Weaver’s 83% strand rate is high and it’s unsustainable, as it’s roughly 8% higher than the league average. His 55 K’s in 72 innings is slightly above average but not by much. What has made Weaver so effective over the years is a lot of good fortune and the ability to change speeds. Truth be told, Weaver’s skills match guys like Jeremy Guthrie, Doug Fister and Phil Hughes. In summarizing, Weaver is not a high strikeout guy, he doesn’t have a groundball pitch, he’s posted a near-50% fly-ball rate in four of the past five seasons and his velocity is in the fifth straight year of decline. By the end of the year, Weaver’s ERA will be closer to 4 than 3 and we’ll be in line to profit when things start going south.