BEST LINE: SportsInteraction +115

The Mets have won three in a row and four of their past five games. During its current three-game modest win streak, New York has outscored the opposition 13-3. Current Mets have 35 hits in 126 career AB’s versus A.J. Burnett for a BA of .278 and a nifty OPS of .816. Burnett has allowed three runs or more in four straight starts. He has a 3.51 ERA after his first 11 starts, a fact that might prevent some from realizing how terrible many of his skills have been. His four-seam fastball velocity has dipped to 91 mph and his swinging strike rate has declined from 11% to 7%. A 78% strand rate has kept his ERA below 4.00. Burnett’s BB/K ratio of 31/53 in 67 innings is more reason to stay clear. In five May starts, Burnett has walked 14 in 29 innings and has posted a 5.29 ERA. His line drive rate is now up to 26% but over his last three starts it’s an alarming 32%. Burnett is being hit hard. He’s allowed 30 hits and 19 earned runs over his last four starts covering 23 innings and now he’s a favorite worth betting against.

Raphael Montero was signed just three years ago as an international free agent. He sped through the Mets system despite being an undersized pitcher (6’0) without a dominant fastball. His career numbers (2.63 ERA, 8½K’s/9) become that much more impressive considering he’s pitched one-third of his 250 innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Montero’s plus-plus control and movement on his pitches make him very tough for hitters to contend with. He throws a fastball with excellent movement from a ¾ arm slot that can reach 95 mph, and complements that with a plus slider and solid-average change-up. There’s a lot to like about Montero’s make-up: good work ethic, repeatable mechanics, easy arm action, solid mound presence, and excellent pitch sequencing. Montero has displayed both the risks of an inexperienced pitcher and the upside that makes him a top prospect in his three starts. His first two starts yielded 8 ER in 10.3 IP, but just when it seemed that he might not be ready for the majors, he threw a gem, holding Arizona to one run over six innings while striking out 10. The Phillies are hitting only .232 at home and only .236 against RHP and they’ve never faced Montero before.