BEST LINE: Pinnacle +120

Once among the AL's most promising young starters, injuries derailed the career of Francisco Liriano but last year he saw a career revival in Pittsburgh that quickly restored his relevance. The question swirling around his name this spring was: How much of last year's comeback was real and how much was luck-driven? He shaved a walk and a half off his walk rate while still whiffing a batter an inning. Liriano fully regained his groundball mojo, boosting GB% back to half of balls put in play. Liriano is still only 30 and he's using the same formula that he rose to prominence years ago in Minnesota—a combination of strikeouts and grounders—to evolve into a formidable starter in the NL. Through two months of the new season, those skills remain intact and Liriano has the chance to put up solid numbers the rest of the way, despite his 5.06 ERA through his first 11 starts. Fact is, Liriano is pitching as well as he ever has with a groundball rate of 53%, a swinging strike rate of 15% (the highest in the NL among starters with seven starts or more) and 58 K’s in 59 innings. A very unlucky 68% strand rate has led to his inflated ERA but his skills say big regression is forthcoming. That said, this one is more about playing a high percentage angle than it is about backing Liriano.

Josh Beckett is coming off a no-hitter and that’s the angle here. Going against a pitcher coming off a no-no has returned big profits over the years. Throwing a no-hitter is one of the rarest feats in a sports career. It will only occur a handful of times in a season and Beckett did it against the Phillies in his last start. After the fifth inning of said start, intensity increases, focus increases and every pitch matters. For pitchers, a no hitter is the pinnacle of accomplishments. After that rare accomplishment there are interviews galore, plus a million phone calls, text messages and emails all offering congratulations. The no-hitter does not end when the game is final. It ends after four days of answering calls and everything else that goes with it. Now Beckett will be sent back out there and there is very little chance of him pitching a strong game. Besides history saying so, Beckett’s skills are not nearly as good as his ERA suggests they are and that’s something we’ll elaborate more on at a later date. For this one, the "game after pitching a no-hitter" angle is in play.