BEST LINE: Bet365 +104

The struggles of 33-year-old Jake Peavy mirror the recent performance of the Red Sox. While Peavy posted a 2.87 ERA in four April starts, he’s scuffled in May, with a 6.59 ERA in five starts. Peavy's main problem is that he's walking a lot more batters than usual, leading to the worst command in his 13-year career. Since Peavy's hit % and strand % are in the normal range, there aren’t many signs that his ERA will improve any time soon. He no longer has the oomph to blow hitters away. While he averaged 94 mph average fastball in his salad days, he’s been consistently at 90 mph for the past four years. Over his past 29 innings, Peavy has walked 12 and struck out 16. His groundball/fly-ball split is 41%/40% but his HR/f is 12%, meaning more balls are leaving the park. The drop in skills tells the story of Peavy's slide over the past couple of years. Until he stops issuing so many free passes, it’s unlikely he’ll contribute much to a Red Sox turnaround. It’s also worth noting that in six starts, Peavy has yet to win at Fenway this season, where he is 0-2 with an ERA of 4.42.

Mike Minor started the year on the DL so he was a step or two behind when he rejoined the club. He’s now started four games and he’s getting stronger. Minor has a BB/K split of 9/27 in 30 frames and has pitched into the seventh inning in each of his last three starts. Last season, Minor built on his 2012 solid second half and zoomed into near-elite status. His control and K rate each took steps up, he broke the 200-IP barrier for the first time and reined in the HR's without the benefit of a lucky hr/f. Confidence in four pitches and perfect reliability make him a low-risk, high-reward investment and certainly a better one than Jake Peavy.