BEST LINE: Pinnacle +134

2:10 PM EST. The Royals have been outscored in the first two games of this series, 12-2. K.C. has now dropped three in a row and six of eight. Danny Duffy comes in with an ERA of 2.42 and WHIP of 1.02 after 10 games with four of those coming as a starter. Now we get the opportunity to sell Duffy at an inflated price because of his surface stats but his under the hood numbers tell a completely different story. Duffy’s xERA since being inserted into the rotation is 5.27. Over his last 23 innings, he’s walked 10 and struck out 10. Poor control continues to undermine Duffy’s decent stuff and his xERA shows that walks and a high fly-ball % won't lead him to much success. More risk than reward here and pitching for a team that is seeing BB’s doesn’t help.

The Astros won 3-0 last night but that score was flattering to the Royals, as Houston just missed scoring three times that. Houston has now won four in a row while batting .337 over that span. Jarred Cosart put up an ugly 5.52 ERAin April and given the terrible skills he posted in 2013 he’s not likely to attract much attention. That said, he continues to possess some intriguing raw tools. His 94-mph four-seam fastball was among the top 10 highest in the NL in April and he continues to show a strong 54% groundball tilt. Cosart’s xERA in May so far is 2.97 but his unlucky strand rate of 69% has hurt his surface stats. Skill-savvy bettors have a close eye on Cosart and with the hot versus cold angle added, we’re happy to back the better pitcher at this price.