BEST LINE: Pinnacle over 7½ +116

3:45 PM EST. This is an early start in San Fran (12:45 local) and it may surprise you to learn that summer days at AT&T favors hitters as opposed to the damp nighttime air that is particularly helpful to pitchers. Day games in San Fran produce more overs than unders but this total does not reflect that. Edwin Jackson is coming off a start in San Diego in which he was ripped for nine hits (2 jacks) and eight runs in just four frames. The start prior to that, Jackson threw a gem against the Brewers. This is all nothing new for Jackson, as he’s been an extremely erratic pitcher over his career throwing for eight different teams in 11 seasons. He's often in demand because of he eats innings and he’s almost always good for double-digit victories over the course of a season. The other side of that coin is why he’s deemed expendable. Jackson has severe ERA swings, a .467 lifetime win% and game-to-game volatility. It's difficult to trust the ball with someone whose dominant start/disaster start split has been on a three-year collision course. In day games over the past three years, Jackson is 14-17 with an ERA of 4.73 and a BAA of .279.

The decline of Tim Lincecum has been well-documented in recent seasons. After two Cy Young awards early in his career, Lincecum has a 4.83 ERA from 2012-14. After 10 starts this season, Lincecum has five quality one’s to go along with his 4.55 ERA. At home, Lincecum is 2-2 with a 4.32 ERA. In four day games, he’s allowed 32 hits and 13 earned runs over 20 innings for an ERA of 5.66. Lincecum has also walked 24 batters in 55.1 innings to push his WHIP to an alarming 1.61. Lincecum has shown the least aggregate movement on his pitches in 2014 among NL SP and it's not even close. It's a problem that has made him extremely hittable, and it's one that is exacerbated by his gradual loss of fastball velocity. He had a 94 mph average fastball velocity early in his career. Now it barely cracks 90 mph. Check out the yearly SLG that batters have posted against his fastball over the past four seasons, starting in 2011: .400, .420, .455 and finally this year, .475. Velocity loss combined with a complete lack of movement on his pitches puts Lincecum near the top of undesirable “under” pitchers.