BEST LINE: Pinnacle over 8 -101

Two hot hitting teams at a pitcher’s park with two very average pitchers going prompts us to step in without hesitation. In seven of the Orioles last eight games, the winning team has scored seven runs or more. In four of the Brewers last five games, the winning team has scored seven runs or more and it would come as no surprise if one or both of these teams scored seven or more again. Bud Norris finally escaped Houston in 2013 and while a move to a contender may help him generate more wins, his skills are simply not that good. Norris has allowed just 17 free passes in 56 innings, resulting in much improved control. However, it would be a welcome change, except his K rate has fallen with it. He's also generating fewer swinging strikes. What was a very good strikeout rate has fallen to league-average and the composite result is more balls being hit hard. In two starts at Miller Park over the past three seasons, Norris was tagged for 13 hits and 10 earned runs in 11 innings for an ERA of 7.71. That’s when he was better and the Brewers bats were worse. Milwaukee has hit .319 over the past week and they figure to keep it going here.

Don’t believe Yovani Gallardo’s 3.51 ERA for a second. Here’s a guy that has seen an erosion of his strikeout rate escalate into a freefall, moving him from star-potential power pitcher to groundball-inducing, innings-eating workhorse. Poor control has long made him a WHIP-killer, now his substandard command says some serious regression is coming in his actual ERA. Gallardo’s swinging strike rate is a low 5%. His BB/K split over his past 27 innings is 10/18. Gallardo has allowed four runs in three of his past four starts and it came against much easier competition than the bats he’ll face here. Gallardo’s skills are on the verge of falling off a cliff. He’s not going to miss many bats, giving these power-hitting Orioles with solid batting averages the opportunity to score plenty. Unless Gallardo gets very lucky, Baltimore will get to him often and early.