BEST LINE: Pinnacle +110

Matt Garza continues to falter. Signed to a big contract to be the Brewers #1 starter, Garza has been the Brewers worst starter and that’s not likely to change. The warning signs just keep coming. Garza’s swinging strike rate has decreased in each of his last six starts. Over that same stretch his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 31%/24%/39% screams to stay away. In his last start against Atlanta, Garza walked three batters and struck out one. Over his last five starts his BB/K split is an alarming 14/21. Garza is a pitcher in peril. He started last season late as he recovered from 2012 elbow injury. His K rate didn't come all the way back and it’s now getting worse.  With his 2011 peak plainly in rear-view mirror, the question is whether that elbow injury left him at this lower level permanently. Judging by his poor and declining skills, we say he’s not close to regaining his old form. Garza is so overpriced here.

Wei-Yin Chen is a mid-rotation stalwart who gives the Orioles innings with an acceptable ERA and a handful of wins. Chen is 5-2 with an ERA of 4.08 but his xERA of 3.87 is a better barometer of his skills. In four of his past five starts, Chen has allowed two earned runs or less. In 53 innings he’s only been taken yard four times. His ERA is slightly inflated due to unlucky hit and strand rates but again, his xERA says he’s very reliable. Chen has also done a better job of keeping the ball on the ground and is coming off three starts with an elite groundball rate of 53%. It’s also worth noting that the Brewers are hitting just .239 against lefties and offer up no value whatsoever as the chalk in this one.