BEST LINE: Pinnacle +121

The Astros have won three straight while outscoring the opposition 22-7 over that span. They took the opener of this series last night by a score of 9-2 while knocking out Yordano Ventura in the third inning. The Astros are displaying power, they have speed and they have an enthusiasm about them that is unmatched. Now they get to face Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie is another one of those pitchers that must rely heavily on good fortune because he doesn’t walk many and strikes out few. He has a lousy 29 K’s in 66 innings and that low K rate is supported by his awful 5% swinging strike rate. One can safely predict that the speedy Astros will be aggressive on the base-paths and wreak havoc on Guthrie’s inability to keep runners off. Guthrie’s general lack of dominance can be seen in his 39%/16% dominant start/disaster split over his average career. Guthrie is pure fade material when he’s favored and pitching for the Royals does not give him any extra appeal.

The Royals are dead last in so many key offensive categories. Their 20 jacks are last in the majors, as is their HR total at home, which is now at nine. K.C is also dead last in extra base hits, meaning they are a singles hitting team that usually has to string together three hits in an inning to score. The Royals have two wins over their past seven games and will now face a good looking rookie that they’ve never seen before. Collin McHugh has come out of nowhere to post a nifty 3.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP after 38 IP. They are marks that have been accompanied by full skills support that include 9.7 K’s/9, good control and a rising groundball rate. His high strikeout rate is backed by an elite 13% swinging strike % and he’s been just as effective against both RHB and LHB. His key has been two dominant pitches: slider (16% swinging strike rate) and curveball (18% swinging strike rate). In addition, his four-seam fastball (10% swinging strike rate) and changeup (8% swinging strike rate) are more than just show pitches. In three road starts, McHugh is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA, a .194 BAA and a BB/K split of 4/23 in 20 innings. Win or lose, this is a must play because there is simply too much value on the Astros to skip it.