BEST LINE: Pinnacle over 9 +106

Arizona has won three in a row at home while scoring 30 runs over that span. It’s unlikely that Eric Stults is going to slow them down. Stults is the epitome of a lefty soft-tosser. His four-pitch mix makes up for his 87-mph fastball but it's his pinpoint control that makes him (barely) playable from time to time. Stults has issued just eight walks in 51 frames but he’s only struck out 25 batters. He puts the ball in play and so he must rely heavily on good fortune and great defense for any chance of success. That might work at Petco but on the road Stults’ risk goes way up. For starters, Chase Field is the second most hitter-friendly park in the NL (+10% runs scored). In his career at Chase Field, he is 2-3 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 32.1 IP. It’s not just Chase Field either, as Stults has always been hit hard on the road, where in his career he is just 12-20 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. In five road starts this season, Stults is 0-4 with a 5.18 ERA, a .313 BAA and he’s also allowed five jacks in 24 innings. The D-Backs figure to get their fair share here.

Wade Miley brings a mixed bag to the table. The PROS are a confirmed rise in his strikeouts and he’s displayed a groundball mastery all of last season and much of this season too. The CONS are that his exquisite 2012 control looks flukish; ditto the command. Miley has walked 25 batters in 68.2 innings. He’s been taken yard 10 times overall but at home he’s been taken yard seven times in five starts. At Chase Field in those five home starts, Miley is 1-4 with a 7.14 ERA with a BAA of .286. Furthermore, current Padres have hit .299 against Miley with a OPS of .790 in 134 combined AB’s. Two very hittable pitchers hook up at this extreme hitter’s park and we should see some crooked numbers against both.