BEST LINE: Pinnacle over 8½ +102

The Rangers are coming off a four-game set in Detroit in which they scored 35 runs and won three times. The top five guys in the batting order (Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Mitch Moorland, Adrian Beltre and Alex Rios) are all heating up at the same time and that spells big trouble for Kevin Correia. Skills don't get more consistent than Correia’s, as there's little variance in yearly xERA or stats. Unfortunately in his case, that's not a good thing. Correia has a 6.52 ERA and a 5.24 xERA. Over his last five starts his ERA was 7.61 and his xERA was 7.24. At home, Correia is 1-3 with an ERA of 7.62. Prior to his last start in San Diego, Correia was tagged for nine runs by the Red Sox. That was Boston’s last win. His last good month was in April of 2013 and it's as if someone unplugged Correia's good luck machine on May 1, 2013. Since then, on a month-to-month basis, he's had a hit rate no less than 32%, strand rates twice in the 60% range and 4 months of over 20% HR/F’s. Correia’s pitch-to-contact approach minimizes value and his numbers over the years reveals how thin margin for error is.

During a recent rain delay, we were watching Ron Gardenhire talk about Target Field and he said that in the warm weather it’s going to be a hitter’s paradise. He pointed out certain subtle changes to the venue and insisted that “balls are going to fly outta here” in a big way. We made a note of that and will put it to the test here on a warm 80 degrees day in Minnesota. Nicholas Tepesch has made only two starts this season and it came against Seattle and Houston. Had Derek Holland, Matt Harrison and/or Martin Perez not got injured, Tepesch would still be in the minors. Tepesch was a non-roster invitee in 2013 that made club out of spring training and managed 17 starts in his MLB debut. He had a rough 5.52 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at Arlington in 2013, along with league-average skills. Tepesch has a swinging strike rate of 5% so his 12 K’s in 12 innings this season is not supported. He now takes a big step up in class when facing a Twins club that has scored as many runs at home as the Tigers in one less game. We’re expecting some crooked innings from both these offenses here and these two pitchers, especially Correia, figure to oblige.