Colorado @ PHILADELPHIA
Colorado/PHILADELPHIA over 8½ +100

BEST LINE: Pinnacle over 8½ +100

Combined, Jhoulys Chacin and Kyle Kendrick are 0-8 in 13 starts. At Citizens Bank, Kendrick is 0-5 with an ERA of 4.52. Two respectable seasons as a swingman earned Kendrick a full-time rotation spot in 2013. Then he produced an ugly 4.70 ERA and 1.40 WHIP and he’s maintained that this year as a starter with almost identical numbers (4.53 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP). In nine starts, Kendrick is winless so not only is he pitching poorly, but he’s also a frustrated pitcher that has to be feeling the pressure of being dropped from the rotation if things don’t improve. Kendrick teased us with a couple of decent years and a nice uptick in strikeouts in 2012 but there's not much upside in this skill set except that he can take the ball every fifth day. In the end, the weak strikeout numbers, middling xERA and disaster risk all make Kendrick at best an innings eater. Kendrick’s last start in Miami resulted in a 14-5 Marlins victory.

The concerns regarding Chacin’s health and skills keep getting larger. Chacin has spent 126 days on the DL over the past three seasons and spent the first month on it this year. In 23 innings over four starts, he was walked 10 batters and struck out 11. The result is a 1.46 WHIP but that’s not the only warning sign. Chacin’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 37%/28%/36% is one of the worst profiles in the game. In two road starts at hitter friendly AT&T Park in San Fran and Citi Field in New York, Chacin was tagged for 12 hits and seven runs in 10.2 frames. He was also taken yard twice in his last start at San Fran. Chacin’s K rate is way down, his walks are up and it looks like last year’s big September fade and high line-drive % was not an aberration. 



Our Pick

Colorado/PHILADELPHIA over 8½ +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Cincinnati +124 over San Diego
Washington +165 over Houston
Cleveland +152 over Houston