BEST LINE: Pinnacle -105 

A.J. Burnett has endured some control problems of late (nine walks in his last 10 IP) and that’s a huge problem against the Dodgers. L.A. has hit Burnett well in the past (.292/.355/.411), they are the NL’s top road offense (.751 OPS, 4.7 RPG), and since May 11 own an .844 OPS while scoring 5.0 runs per game. Not only is Burnett having trouble finding the plate but his heavy groundball tilt in the past is trending the other way, as he has just 18 groundouts over his past three starts compared to 37 fly-outs. When we see a pitcher trending that way, it’s a sure sign of a pitcher in peril. Perhaps Burnett’s hernia is acting up or perhaps it’s a change in his delivery to compensate for it. Whatever the case, A.J. Burnett’s skills are nose-diving and this now becomes an opportunity to cash in against that. Additionally, Burnett needed 96 pitches to get through five innings in his last start and 113 pitches to get through five innings in the start prior. He’s now allowed 13 runs over his last 16 innings.

Meanwhile, Josh Beckett has 46 K’s in 47 innings while issuing just 17 walks. Unlike Burnett, Beckett is getting stronger with each passing start. The Dodgers have won his last two starts by scores of 9-4 and 7-1. Beckett comes in with a 2.89 ERA, a 46% groundball rate, a 10% swinging strike rate and the smarts to get out of trouble when the situation arises. Beckett’s ERA is not going to stay this low for the rest of the year but that’s a case for another time. For now, this one is all about fading Burnett, a pitcher in big trouble that is very likely going to surrender a crooked number here.