BEST LINE: Pinnacle +132 

This is the biggest overlay on today’s card. Dallas Keuchel’s stock just keeps going up and not many are noticing. He gets the Mariners here, a team that owns a .673 OPS overall (13th in AL) and a .675 mark against left-handers. With an increased strikeout rate this year of 8K’s/9 a decreased walk rate (1.8BB/9) and a swinging strike rate of 12%, Keuchel’s 2.92 ERA is legit. He has also faced his fair share of top-notch AL offenses in compiling what is a 2.56 xERA. In addition to those good offensive clubs (Angels twice, Texas, Detroit, Toronto and Oakland) Keuchel has also been getting a ton of ground balls with consistency. Keuchel has 66 K’s and just 14 walks in 62 innings. Seattle is the worst-hitting team in the league against groundball pitchers and it looks like they’ll have to scratch and claw for anything against this undervalued starter.

Hisashi Iwakuma has returned to his #2 slot in the M’s rotation behind Felix Hernandez but he'd be a #1 on most MLB squads. Iwakuma probably isn't quite as stellar as his 2.66 ERA from 2013, or even his debut 2012 season ERA of 3.16, as evidenced by his xERAs from those seasons of 3.74 and 3.29. But Iwakuma's sparkling command and solid GB tilt form a solid base so even a likely strand% regression shouldn't hurt his numbers much. We’ll look to back Iwakuma when the situation is presented but Keuchel is every bit as good as Iwakuma and the take-back makes the latter very worthy of backing.