BEST LINE: Betfair +112

1:00 PM EST. With spring injuries shelving two of their top starters, the Athletics turned to long-reliever Jesse Chavez to fill the void at the start of the year. With his first four starts all being of the pure quality variety, Chavez certainly made quite an impression but we’re starting to see some chinks in his armor. Only two of his last five starts have been of the pure quality variety. Chavez has also allowed two jacks in each of his last two starts. It’s also worth noting that his hot start came against weak competition that included the Astros twice, Seattle once and at Minnesota on a very cold day. Chavez entered this season with 5.99 ERA in 156 appearances so it may be a little premature to declare him a stud in such a small sample size this season. Chavez has a very impressive 2.54 ERA but his xERA over his last five starts is 4.07. He has been aided by an unsustainable 83% strand rate and it’s only a matter of time before some of those base-runners start crossing the plate. With a new approach and improved results, there’s no reason to expect the wheels to completely fall off for Chavez but he’s not going to maintain that ERA he’s posted to this point either. He’ll now face one of the hottest teams in the game and we’re not convinced he should be favored. 

The Blue Jays have won 9 of 11. They are not only swinging hot bats and playing great defense but they’re doing all the little things right as well. Toronto’s execution of getting runners over and getting them in has been near flawless over this current hot streak. There isn’t a soft spot in the Blue Jays order. Each player that comes to the dish is a threat to go deep and it’s not just power either. The Jays have speed, they hit for average and they are as cohesive a unit as any team in baseball. That brings us to R.A. Dickey and he needs no introductions. Dickey has some risk because if his knuckler isn’t dancing, he has no shot at success. However, Dickey is 4-1 at home this season with a 3.05 ERA. Besides, this one is more about disregarding the pitchers and playing the Blue Jays at home as a dog because Toronto is playing too well to ignore in this spot.