BEST LINE: Pinnacle -1 +104

The Rays are too cold at the dish to be spotting 1½-runs so we’ll just have to settle for this wager with a smaller take-back. The good news is that despite the weak hitting, Tampa has started to win some games and that’s a huge difference to a teams’ mindset. The Rays are coming off back-to-back wins and will once again enjoy a significant edge on the hill here. Jake Peavy’s dropping skills and rising fly-ball profile warn that ERA could continue to rise. Over his last three starts covering 16.1 frames, Peavy has struck out 7 batters while walking 6. He’s allowed nine jacks in 54 frames and has yet to go a start this season without giving up a bomb. Peavy’s numbers just keep getting worse. He faded badly down the stretch last season and he’s trending that way again this year with a 6.35 ERA and .310 OBA average in May. Recapping, Jake Peavy’s K’s are way down, his BB’s are up, his fly-ball rate continues to increase and is now at 42% compared to 38% groundouts, he has a 1.50 WHIP overall and in May, covering three starts, his WHIP is at 1.72 and his ERA is at 5.16. Pitching for a Red Sox team that has lost eight in a row and that’s not giving their pitchers any run support whatsoever, Peavy’s risk far outweighs his reward.

David Price has an ERA of 4.28 after 10 starts. That’s the majors’ most misleading ERA so a serious correction, to the good, in Price’s ERA is forthcoming. Price’s xERA is 2.95. Here’s a guy that has walked six batters in 69 innings while striking out 77. Over his last 34 innings, Price has walked two and struck out 37. Price’s dominance can be seen in his 83%/4% dominant start/disaster start split since the start of the second half last year. Not only is Price’s under the hood stats sick, he’s added another couple of pitches to his repertoire and is using his 94 MPH four-seam fastball less. Price has a wicked cutter and one of the best changeups in the game. There are no signs of a slowdown for Price. He’s an elite pitcher with elite skills whose ERA will reflect that very shortly. Price figures to breeze through a Red Sox lineup that is swinging at everything and hitting nothing. Invest with confidence.