TAMPA BAY +106 over Boston

John Lackey is having a decent year so far with 13 walks and 56 K’s in 58 innings. His 4.01 ERA is a result of an unlucky 72% strand rate. Still, Lackey has been much better at Fenway, where he is 3-2 with a 3.68 ERA compared to his 4.82 ERA away from Fenway. That coincides with last year’s totals as well, as Lackey was 6-3 at home with a 2.47 ERA and .232/.266/.375 line. Away from Fenway, he was 4-10 with a 4.48 ERA and .260/.312/.447 line. Regardless of whether Lackey has a good or bad game, this wager is more about fading the Red Sox as the chalk.

The Red Sox can’t be favored in Tampa right now. Boston just got swept at home by both the Blue Jays and Tigers to run their losing streak to seven games. Over that 7-game losing streak, Boston has scored 15 runs. Six of those runs came in the late innings in the first two games against the Jays with Toronto up big in both games. In the final two innings yesterday, Dustin McGowan came in and retired six Red Sox in a row to close out the game. David Ortiz is on a 0-18 streak. Johnny Gomes bats cleanup and is hitting .250. This is the worst Red Sox lineup in decades and it’s not like they are just in a slump. It’s a collection of fading vets and very average youngsters. Boston’s longest winning streak this year is two games. Enter Chris Archer. Archer has an ERA of 4.59 and a WHIP of 1.45 after nine starts. That’s not very good but he’s a pitcher with huge profit potential because his raw stuff is as good as some of MLB’s top hurlers. Archer has a strong groundball rate of 51%. His 41 K’s in 51 innings is supported by his swinging strike rate of 10%. Archer made good on his pedigree in the 2H of last year and it may have been an abbreviated coming out party. He already owns one of the top heaters in the game. His only blemish is a lack of control but if he’s able to rectify that, as he did in the second half of last year, it's reasonable to project a full season of ample Ks and an ERA close to his 2013 ERA of 3.22. Sticking with Archer with bring rewards and it’s likely to begin here because this is a lineup that can be dominated. With so much value on the Rays, we're making this a rare 3-unit play.