BEST LINE: Pinnacle -108

Milwaukee has dropped five of six and their bats have cooled off too. Marco Estrada is 30-years-old and has never topped 140 innings in a season. He’s already thrown 54 innings and while that is not a lot, his stamina issues are beginning to rear its ugly head. Estrada appears to be getting worse with each passing week. He’s surrendered two jacks in four of his last five starts. Over that stretch, he's allowed a major-league worst nine home runs. Estrada’s fastball velocity has dipped in three straight seasons and now sits at 89 mph. His calling card is one of the best changeups in the game but when his change isn’t working, it’s batting practice out there. Estrada also owns a fly-ball bias profile of 47% fly-outs against just 37% groundouts. We’re not interested in a tiring Marco Estrada on the road against the hottest home team in the majors.

Miami is a major-league best 19-6 at home. They’re coming off a series win over Philadelphia in which they scored 23 runs in three games. At home the Marlins own the league’s second best BA of .295 and their 148 runs scored is second to Colorado’s 162 runs scored at home. Just to give you an idea of how potent the Fish have been at home, the team with the third most runs scored at home, the L.A. Angels, are 30 runs behind Miami. Tom Koehler has been one of many good surprises for a Marlins team with a hot start. Koehler has been a big part of that success with a 2.25 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through his first nine starts. He’s not likely to keep it up because a mediocre strikeout rate coupled with average control rarely results in long-term success. Unfortunately, Koehler brings both to the table. However, Koehler does have an elite 55% groundball rate and an elite 16% swinging strike rate when he throws his curve. For now, Koehler is a much better option pitching for the Fish at home than a struggling fly-ball pitcher throwing for a struggling team. If we call the pitching matchup even, give Miami a big edge everywhere else and that's the big difference in this one.