BEST LINE: Pinnacle over 7 -103

When we think of the Braves we think low scoring but it may surprise you to learn that the winning team in the Braves past 10 games scored four runs or more in every contest. Atlanta has scored 21 runs in their past four games and figure to get plenty more scoring opportunities against Matt Garza. Garza has allowed three earned runs or more in four straight and seven of his nine starts. In his last two starts in Atlanta’s Turner Field, Garza was tagged for 11 hits and seven earned runs in just 9 IP. He was also taken yard three times in those nine innings. On the road this season, Garza is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.86. Garza is a frustrated pitcher that brings his emotions with him to the mound. An unsure Matt Garza is a recipe for runs scored against.   

Aaron Harang has enjoyed a mini re-birth so far in 2014: 2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.7 K’s/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 40% groundball rate. While his pitch mix has been more slanted towards his four-seam fastball, a tightened slider is the real reason for his growth. He has a high 32% K% on that pitch, along with a 21% swinging strike rate. Both marks are significant jumps from the results he had on those pitches in 2013. At age 36, we're still pessimistic that Harang will be able to continue to ride that pitch to sustained success because once batters start studying the “new” Harang, they’ll make adjustments. Current Brewers have hit .278 against Harang in a combined 212 AB’s. We’re confident that Atlanta will get its share of runs here and we’re not asking the Brewers to put up a crooked number. Should the Crew score two or three, this total becomes extremely beatable and we’ll gladly hang our hats on that.