Toronto @ BOSTON
Toronto +118 over BOSTON

BEST LINE: Pinnacle +118

The Red Sox have dropped five in a row and six of seven. Against Rick Porcello, Anibal Sanchez, Matt Scherzer and the Tigers pen, Boston scored three runs over this past weekend in losing all three. Against Phil Hughes and J.A. Happ in the other two games of their current losing streak, the Red Sox scored five runs (4 off Happ and 1 off Hughes). Boston’s longest winning streak this season is two games and things certainly don’t get easier against Drew Hutchison and a Blue Jays team that is playing well. Nearly two years removed from Tommy John surgery that shelved him for most of 2013, Hutchison earned a spot in the Jays rotation after producing a 1.80 ERA this spring. He's always flashed big strikeout potential and currently leads the Blue Jays staff in Ks with 55 in 54 IP. He's shown no ill effects from going under the knife, as he's punching out nearly a batter per inning while posting an impressive 11% swinging strike rate. What's more, he's bumped his fastball velocity from 91 mph in '12 to 92 mph, but can reach back to the 95-mph range if necessary. An unlucky 69% strand rate gives his 3.64 ERA even more room for improvement. Hutchison is coming off a complete game, shutout gem in Texas in which he surrendered just three hits and threw just 105 pitches. This kid is the real deal that most of the Red Sox have never faced (Ortiz, Napoli and Nava are a combined 0-7 against Hutchison).

Meanwhile Clay Buchholz has been tagged for 20 hits and nine earned runs over his last 10.1 innings. In three starts at Fenway, covering just 16.2 innings, Buchholz has been tagged for 23 hits and 13 earned runs. Buchholz has a 1.80 WHIP after eight starts. His WHIP over his last five starts is 1.85. Over his last 26 innings he’s walked 12 and struck out 18. Last season Buchholz opened the year 9-0 with an ERA under 2.00 but that stellar start was not entirely supported because of a high strand rate and low hit rate. This season his luck has been bad but his skills have shown a serious decline right across the board. Buchholz has a history of poor health (220 days on DL over the past three years) and it may be safe to assume he’s still not 100%. At any rate, facing the hot-hitting Blue Jays isn’t likely going to be the remedy for him to get right-sided. 



Our Pick

Toronto +118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)

Cincinnati +124 over San Diego
Washington +165 over Houston
Cleveland +152 over Houston