BEST LINE: Pinnacle -1½ +158

We could spot a run and take-back a tiny price but we’ll elect to go with spotting the extra half run because the Brewers are reeling and the Braves are gaining steam. The pitching matchup also favors the host. Milwaukee has lost four straight. The offense has gone cold with just five runs scored over their past four games. The Brewers have been outscored in the first two games of this series 14-3 and now they’ll face the resurgent Earvin Santana. Santana has struck out 46 and walked just 10 in 46 innings. His 14% swinging strike rate bodes well here against a free swinging Brewers team that has struck out more times over the past 10 games (90) than any team in baseball. Santana's 20/2 K/BB ratio at home should mean lots of strikeouts and few walks. He's also been dominant at Turner Field with a 1.66 ERA and 0.88 WHIP.

Kyle Lohse is 5-1 with an ERA of 2.88. On the road, Lohse is 3-0 with an ERA of 3.52 but it’s near impossible to believe any of it. Lohse continues to outpitch his skills. His exquisite control still leads the way but his profile highlights his risk. Lohse has a mid-80’s fastball. His average K rate and slight groundball tilt (42%/37%) is not strong enough to keep his ERA under 3.00. One must give Lohse credit for continuing to outperform by making good use of five pitches and providing consistency from start to start—a fact that has helped deliver at least 20 quality starts each of the past two years. However, Lohse is not going to bring anything to the table here that the Braves haven’t seen before. Current Braves have faced Lohse 126 times and have hit a combined .270 against him. Lohse has avoided disasters this year entirely by allowing three runs or less in every one of his nine starts. The greatest pitchers in the game can’t go long stretches without getting whacked (see Johnny Cueto and Masahiro Tanaka last night) and now that the Brewers have lost momentum it’s Kyle Lohse’s turn to get whacked. This could very well be that turn.