BEST 5-INNING LINE: Pinnacle +100

Both these teams have nine wins but when we look at the Royals victories we see that seven of them have occurred against the White Sox (2), the Astros (3) and the Twins (2). The Royals were also swept by Minnesota at Target Field earlier. Mike Moustakas is hitting .133. Billy Butler is hitting .200.  Salvador Perez is batting .227 and Jarrod Dyson is hitting .111. The Royals are getting backed today because the pitching matchup on paper looks to be in their favor with the ever consistent James Shields facing a rather unknown Danny Salazar. Shields’ has posted a 1.31 ERA over his last three starts while Salazar has posted a 7.71 ERA over that same span. What ERA doesn’t reveal is what is under the hood of those numbers. Shields’ xERA, particularly in the second half last season indicates that there was some skills slippage. Expect his ERA to rise in 2014. It looks like the big groundball% gain in 2012 was an aberration. He also gave up a lot more line drives than usual and that has continued this season, where Shields’ batted ball profile of 42%/27%/31% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates are right around league average. Don’t get us wrong, Shields’ would be welcome on any pitching staff in the majors but he’s the second best starter in this game and the Royals are struggling miserably at the plate.

The Indians are struggling too but they’re at home and they’ve won two straight including the opener of this series last night. Danny Salazar went 2-3 with a 3.12 ERA in just 52 innings for Cleveland a year ago. Salazar has blazing, wicked stuff. He averages (that's averages) 96 mph on a fastball with sinister movement and he mixes in a nasty splitter. Salazar works up in the zone a lot so hitters will occasionally run into a long one and he's had issues lasting deep into games but his skills are the real deal. Make no mistake, Salazar owns some of the best raw stuff in the game. He has a dominant four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and splitter. He needs to dial back his velocity at times to induce more groundballs but you can speculate on his elite skills and raw stuff because they are good enough to win more games than any starter on this staff. You may be enticed into wagering on Shields’ ERA and pedigree in this one but we’re giving you the alternative option and suggesting that Salazar should not be a dog to the Royals at home.