Pinnacle +125 BET365 +125 Sportsinteraction +125 888Sport +125

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Inter Milan +125 (To Win in Full Time) over Juventus

Allianz Stadium – Turin, Italy

Italy Serie A

11:30 AM ET. "The Derby d'Italia" needs no introduction. It’s the Red Sox-Yankees, Duke-North Carolina, or Georgia-Florida of Italian football. This is a rivalry dripping in history, animosity, and enough bad blood to make a soap opera blush. These two have squared off over 250 times across a century of competition, and in games like these, all the metrics, trends, and stats get tossed in the trash. However, despite all that, Juventus finds itself as a rare home underdog here, and that grabs our attention. The market is puzzled by this line, and for good reason. Juventus has won the last three meetings in Turin, yet they’re catching plus money at home? Something doesn’t add up, and that’s exactly why we’re diving in.

Juve sits fifth in Serie A, and one of their biggest selling points is that they’ve only lost once in domestic play this season. That sounds great on paper—until you realize that they’ve also drawn a league-leading 13 times. That’s a fancy way of saying they’ve turned wins into disappointments. Dropping points to Venezia, Torino, and Lecce—teams who are basically playing not to be relegated—doesn’t inspire confidence

Then there’s their Champions League campaign, where they lost to Benfica and couldn’t get past Club Brugge. These were games they were supposed to win easily. But if you’ve followed Juve this season, you already know their attack often looks like it's being run by a committee that needs three meetings to make a decision.

Inter Milan is rolling. Since September 28th, they’ve lost just three times across all competitions. That’s Serie A, the Italian Super Cup, and the UEFA Champions League included. The list of clubs they’ve dispatched along the way reads like a Champions League knockout round: Arsenal, Leipzig, AS Monaco, Sparta Prague, Atalanta, Parma, and AS Roma. Their form rating is an absurd 92%, and a win here puts them atop the Serie A table. In other words, there’s momentum, motivation, and a statement to be made.

These two met earlier this season in Milan, and if you just checked the final score (4-4), you’d think it was an even contest. It wasn’t. Inter:

Outshot Juve

Doubled them in corners

Created more big chances

Led 3-2 at halftime before Juve scraped their way back

Inter wants another crack at this. The oddsmakers aren’t throwing out a gift on Juventus; they’re showing Inter respect. The visitors are better, in better form, and playing for something bigger than just bragging rights. We’ll gladly back Inter Milan to get it done in 90.

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