Pinnacle  -1½ +205   BET365   -1½ +205 Sportsinteraction  -1½ +205  888port -1½ +205

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Winnieg -1½ +205 over Dallas

Canada Life Centre – Winnipeg, MB

Game 5 – Western Conference Semifinals

Series: Stars lead 3–1

9:30 PM ET. Regulation only. Let’s not sugarcoat it — the Jets are down 3–1 and hanging by a thread. They can’t buy a goal, their power play has gone ice-cold, and they just got punked in back-to-back games in Dallas. The market sees all that and wants no part of them, but we do. We’re buying the Jets to win by two or more tonight at a very sweet price — because this one has blowout potential.

Winnipeg didn’t just underperform on the scoreboard in Game 4 — they dominated the run of play and walked away with nothing to show for it. Seventy shot attempts. Thirty-two on net. Eighteen more blocked. Another 20 missed. One goal. If hockey had expected goals like poker has expected value, the Jets are running about as cold as a Manitoba blizzard.

Jake Oettinger has been terrific, but he’s also been lucky. Winnipeg is getting to the right areas. The puck just isn’t going in — yet. That’s the whole point. Regression isn’t just real, it’s overdue. You cannot keep generating high-danger looks at that volume and keep coming up with nothing. Not in this league.

Now the Jets return home down 3–1 and that’s where things get interesting. A one-game-at-a-time mentality is the only way out, and we expect Winnipeg to unleash the full arsenal here. They were the highest-scoring power play team in the NHL during the regular season. That didn’t just disappear. They’ve gone 1-for-16 in the series. Again — unsustainably bad. The dam’s going to break.

Meanwhile, Dallas is feeling good. Real good. They’ve got their full lineup back. They’re getting timely goals from deadline additions. They’re saying all the right things. But it’s Game 5 on the road, with a cushion. Their urgency meter doesn’t match Winnipeg’s, and that’s a problem when the other team is playing for its life. The Stars want to finish this off. The Jets have to. That’s a gap the market never fully prices in.

Let’s also not forget this is the same Winnipeg team that finished with the best record in the NHL and won 16 of their last 19 regular-season games. They’re not dead — they’re just due. What we’re looking for is value, and it’s written all over this one. Winnipeg to win in regulation is good. Winnipeg -1½ at +205 is better. If the Jets come out flying, a multi-goal win is absolutely in the cards — and that’s the only bet that makes sense at this price.

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