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Posted at 2:00 PM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Finland +304 over USA

Bell Centre – Montreal, QC

8:00 PM ET. OT included. Team USA is a monster on paper. It boasts the deepest roster of offensive talent the country has assembled since the 1996 World Cup of Hockey, features a mix of size, skill, and experience, and is stocked with players who have shone on the game’s biggest stages. That’s the narrative, and it’s why oddsmakers have the Americans priced as a prohibitive favorite in this opening matchup at the 4 Nations Face-Off. But if you’ve been around long enough, you know that hockey games aren’t won on paper—otherwise, the Toronto Maple Leafs would have about ten Cups by now. We’re not in the business of betting on what the market already knows. We’re in the business of finding value, and the value in this game is on the Finns.

Let’s start with what Finland is up against. The Americans are loaded up front, led by a top six featuring Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Matthew Tkachuk, Jack Hughes, and Kyle Connor, all of whom have game-breaking ability. USA’s power play will be lethal, and there’s little doubt it will generate quality chances throughout this tournament. On the back end, the Americans are mobile and puck-moving, even without Quinn Hughes, and in goal, they have the reigning Vezina Trophy winner in Connor Hellebuyck, who will get the start in this game. On paper, this is a tough assignment for Finland. But hockey games don’t always play out the way they’re supposed to—otherwise, Canada wouldn’t still be crying over the ‘72 Summit Series.

Finland is missing Miro Heiskanen, and yes, that’s a big loss, but this is still a team with legitimate top-end talent. The Finns will roll out a top six centered by Aleksander Barkov and Sebastian Aho, two of the most complete forwards in the NHL. They have elite finishing ability on the wings with Mikko Rantanen and Patrik Laine, both of whom can change a game with one shot. And they have a system that has long given high-powered offenses fits. Finland doesn’t win by overwhelming opponents with raw talent. It wins by playing structured, disciplined, and opportunistic hockey—basically, the exact opposite of how the Edmonton Oilers play defense.

Then there’s Juuse Saros. Saros hasn’t been at his best this season, but he remains one of the most talented goaltenders in the sport. Goaltending is the great equalizer in a one-game setting, and if Saros has one of his signature nights, Finland’s chances of pulling the upset increase dramatically. Meanwhile, Hellebuyck is an elite netminder, but his playoff history is spotty, and this is his first test in a best-on-best setting where pressure will be at its peak. If you don’t think nerves matter, just ask any beer-league player trying to make a pass with two seconds left in a tie game.

The Americans are the better team, but they have had almost no time to develop chemistry, and these types of international tournaments always feature surprises. The market is acting like this is a foregone conclusion, but Finland has the pedigree, the structure, and the talent to make this a game. We’ll gladly take our chances with the live underdog.

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