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Posted at 2:00 PM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Sweden +210 over Canada

Bell Centre – Montreal, QC

8:00 PM ET. OT included. If you want to bet Canada here, be our guest. After all, they’re on home ice, have a lineup stacked with superstars, and, well, they’re Canada. You don’t become the gold standard in international hockey without earning it. But let’s be real—this number is based on reputation, not reality. The market sees Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, and a sea of maple leafs and assumes this one is already in the bag. That’s exactly why we’re stepping in on the undervalued Swedes, who have all the tools to flip this script and send the Bell Centre crowd home in stunned silence.

Goaltending wins tournaments, and Canada’s crease situation is about as inspiring as a soggy Tim Hortons donut. They’re rolling with Jordan Binnington, a guy who hasn't looked comfortable in a high-pressure situation since 2019, and Adin Hill, who has one good playoff run to his name but has never been tested on this stage. Meanwhile, Sweden is countering with Filip Gustavsson, who posted a sparkling .915 save percentage this season and backstopped Sweden to a bronze medal at the 2024 World Championships. Oh, and if Gustavsson has an off night? No problem. Sweden can turn to Linus Ullmark, who has a Vezina Trophy collecting dust on his shelf. Sweden's goaltending is not just better than Canada’s—it’s significantly better, and when a game is close, it’s usually the guy in the crease who decides it.

Now, let’s talk about what everyone thinks Sweden is—a boring, defensive team that traps its way to victory and wins games 2-1. That Sweden doesn’t exist anymore. This is a fast, skilled, attack-minded squad with firepower at every position. William Nylander, Filip Forsberg, Elias Pettersson, Lucas Raymond, Erik Karlsson, and Rasmus Dahlin aren’t exactly grinders who dump and chase for 60 minutes. These guys are puck wizards. They’re fast, they’re creative, and they’re going to cause major headaches for Canada’s defense. The days of Sweden clogging up the neutral zone and waiting for the other team to make a mistake are long gone. This group plays with aggression and will come at Canada in waves.

So why is Sweden priced like a team that should be grateful just to share the same ice? Because the market sees Canada and assumes they’re invincible. They aren’t, and all it takes is a few bounces, a hot goalie, or a bad penalty, and suddenly, that -225 ticket on Canada starts feeling awfully heavy. If these two teams played 10 times, Sweden would win at least four, maybe more. That makes this grossly inflated price on the Swedes an absolute steal.

If you’re thinking about betting Canada, ask yourself this—do you really want to pay a premium for a team whose biggest weakness is goaltending one-off, makeshift tournament? We’ll gladly take the overlay on a Swedish squad that is stacked with talented, better in net, and playing with absolutely zero pressure. If they lose, nobody will bat an eye. If Canada loses? Panic. Chaos. National crisis.

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