Pinnacle  +116 BET365 +115  Sportsinteraction  +115 888Sport  +115

Posted at 1:30 PM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Philadelphia +116 over N.Y. Islanders

7:30 PM. ET. OT included. Don’t let the recency bias fool you. Yes, the Islanders are on a five-game heater, but let’s take a closer look at that streak. Wins over Chicago, Columbus, and a battered Dallas squad are hardly impressive. Their victory over Colorado looks good on paper, but the Avs were playing their third game in four nights, and it showed.

Ilya Sorokin has been the backbone of New York’s recent run, but relying on goaltending to bail you out night after night is not a sustainable strategy. The Islanders remain one of the league’s worst teams in 5v5 Expected Goals (xGF%), sitting in the bottom third of the NHL. They are getting outplayed regularly, and their defensive numbers suggest regression is coming.

On the other side, the Flyers got punched in the mouth by New Jersey, but we’re not overreacting to one bad loss. Philly has been a strong analytical team all season, ranking in the top 10 in Expected Goals For (xGF) and Corsi For (CF%). Their aggressive forecheck and ability to generate scoring chances at 5v5 should pose serious problems for the Isles’ mediocre defensive structure. Plus, the Flyers will be extra motivated after getting shut out. We’re happy to back Philly in this spot.

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