Pinnacle  +135 BET365 +130  Sportsinteraction  +130 888Sport  +130

Posted at 1:30 PM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Los Angeles +135 over Tampa Bay

7:00 PM ET. OT included. The Lightning are in a tailspin. Over their last five games, they have managed just a single win, and even that came against an equally struggling Arizona team in overtime. Losses to Chicago and Detroit—two teams sitting near the bottom of the standings—are glaring indicators that Tampa Bay is running on fumes. The Lightning are 6-8-1 in January, and their once-strong home record (15-7-1) is losing its luster as they limp toward the 4-Nations break.

The absence of Andrei Vasilevskiy due to illness is a significant blow. His backup, Jonas Johansson, has been serviceable in stretches, but let’s not sugarcoat it—he’s no Vasilevskiy. Tampa Bay’s defense has been leaky, and when they allow scoring chances, they tend to be of the high-danger variety. The Bolts allowed 19 high-danger chances combined against Chicago and Detroit, two offensively inept teams.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles isn’t exactly setting the world on fire either, but there’s a major difference between these two teams. The Kings are underperforming relative to their ability, while the Lightning appear to be running on empty. L.A. was blanked by Florida on Wednesday, but Sergei Bobrovsky stood on his head, stopping all 34 shots he faced. If the Kings replicate that effort, the results will be different against a far more fragile opponent.

Adrian Kempe remains one of the league’s most underrated goal-scorers, potting seven goals this month. Pair that with a Kings team that is still top five in Expected Goals For (xGF) at 5v5, and you have a squad that is generating plenty of offense but suffering from some unfortunate puck luck. That luck should correct itself sooner rather than later.

Plain and simple no only are the Kings the better team here, they’re playing the better brand of hockey, have an elite possession game, and are catching the Lightning at a vulnerable time. Yeah, we’ll take the plus-money with Los Angeles.

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