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Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Detroit over Tampa Bay

7:00 PM ET. OT included. Detroit has quietly started to find its stride under Todd McLellan, a coach who has instilled a more structured and aggressive approach since taking over. Thursday’s 4-2 win over Montreal was a clear indicator of that progress. The Wings dominated early, outshooting the Habs 17-4 in the opening frame, and finished with a season-high 45 shots. That type of sustained pressure wears opponents down and gives Detroit a formula for success against a Tampa Bay team playing the second half of a back-to-back.

While Tampa Bay managed a 4-3 overtime win in Chicago last night, the effort left much to be desired. It took two late penalties by the Blackhawks to set the stage for Jake Guentzel’s game-tying power-play goal with under a minute left in regulation and Nikita Kucherov’s winner in overtime. The Lightning expended significant energy just to salvage two points, and they now have to regroup less than 24 hours later. Fatigue could be a factor, especially for a team relying heavily on its top players.

Speaking of Kucherov, his 11-game point streak is impressive, but streaks like that also inflate market perception. Yes, Kucherov is a game-changer, but Detroit’s defense, led by Moritz Seider, has been much more effective of late. Seider himself emphasized the team’s commitment to a "shoot-first, grind-them-out" mentality, which can disrupt even elite players like Kucherov and force Tampa Bay’s depth to step up—a tall task on tired legs.

Detroit is also riding the momentum of Dylan Larkin’s milestone night on Thursday. The captain scored a power-play goal and added an assist in his 700th career game, leading by example and energizing a team desperate to string together wins. A renewed commitment to aggressive starts and relentless puck pursuit gives the Red Wings a blueprint to dictate the game’s pace.

While the market leans heavily toward Tampa Bay’s pedigree, this Lightning team has been inconsistent, especially on the road. They’re 11-11-2 away from Amalie Arena and are playing their third game in four nights. Combine that with Detroit’s noticeable improvement under McLellan and a chance to avenge last week’s loss, and the Red Wings become an appealing play as a home underdog.

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