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Western Conference Quarterfinal - Game 3
Calgary -½ +110 over Dallas
9:30 PM EST. Regulation only. Kudos to the Stars for lulling the Flames to sleep. Shame on the Flames for allowing the Stars to grind them into dust. Dallas is the only team in the past 20 years to emulate the 1995 New Jersey Devils. That said, Calgary is -290 or thereabouts to win this series despite giving up home ice advantage. That price on Dallas to win the series pretty much tells us what the books think of the Stars and we have to agree. We’re wagering that the Flames snap out of it here.
Jake Oettinger has been solid in both games by stopping 54 pucks on 55 shots (.982), 14 high-danger saves and a goals saved above expected of 3.06. Too many of Calgary’s attempts have come from the perimeter, and a disproportionate number don’t make it to Oettinger in the first place. The Flames are one of the very best offensive teams in the NHL but they’re being outscored in this series 2-1. How can that be?
36 of the Flames’ 65 shot attempts never got through to the net. Calgary missed 16 shots. The Stars also blocked 20. Overall, the Flames failed to make life difficult for the rookie goalie. Oettinger was seeing pucks well all night; there wasn’t much traffic in front of him and hardly any screens or tips.
The Stars strategy is to clear space in front of the net so their goalie can see everything. Then they pray that they’ll score a couple of goals and it’ll hold up. That was a winning strategy back in the day when Totals were u5 -140. The Flames have out-attempted the Stars 118-72, outshot them 55-39, and outchanced them 48-26. Furthermore, the Flames regular-season production strongly suggests that they have more in the tank. The Stars? They’ve played this way all year and it's not going to change. If it were 1995, we might lean to a team with an expected goals of 0.15 but this is 2022. Wake up Calgary.
Calgary goes from being -237 at home and -½ -180 to a much smaller favorite today based on venue. We’ll suggest that getting out of Dodge might be what the doctor ordered. They can get away from the pressures at home and get back to playing Flames’ hockey. If they do that, this series is a mismatch. Dallas has one line that has done jack this series and an entire team that creates jack. Wake up Calgary! Underlay,
Calgary -½ +110 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)