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Posted at 3:30 PM EST.

Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay

8:05 PM EST. OT included. As a pooch, the Maple Leafs are just about always worthy of our consideration and today is no different. Yes, we know the Lightning are a fierce squad, but so, too, is Toronto when it is firing on all cylinders.

The Leafs have won four straight and six of seven. In that time they’ve been outshot just twice, including last time out against the Flyers, a game in which Toronto still won, 5-2. The other was a bad night at home to the Sabres on April 12. The Maple Leafs have been favored in all but one of their last 10, a 7-6 OT loss in Florida way back on April 5. You may remember that game, as we backed Toronto that night in South Beach. The Leafs had a 5-1, took their foot of the gas, lost momentum and could not get it back.

Although this line does not show it, the Leafs have been in much better form than the Bolts, who have split their last six (3-3) and gone just 4-6 in their last 10. A quick peek under the hood further backs up that claim, as the Lightning are just outside the top-10 (12th) in puck possession over the last two weeks. That’s not bad, but it’s not elite. You know who's been elite? The Leafs, who rank fourth. Just about every other underlying stat you could want to care about trickles down from dominating puck possession. Expected goals, Lighting #16, Maple Leafs #5. High danger scoring chances, Bolts #12, Leafs #3. Finally, when it comes to puck luck or PDO, Tampa has been the seventh luckiest side, while Toronto is 13th. As we are not in the business of predicting the outcomes of games, but rather going with the best of it and letting the chips fall where they may, backing the Maple Leafs is easy. Toronto is the clear value choice.