Pinnacle -½ +160 BET365 -½ +150 SportInteraction  -½ +150 BetOnline -½ +153 Bookmaker -½ +150

Posted at 1:30 PM EST.

Pittsburgh -½ +150 over WINNIPEG

8:38 PM EST. Regulation only. Winnipeg is 9-4-4 while the Penguins are just 7-6-4 and once again we’ll point to misleading records influencing the price to a large degree. We’ll continue to take the position that wins and losses are so misleading in the NHL and there is no way that the Jets should be favored over a healthy Penguins’ squad so allow us to break it down for you.

In the underlying stats, (puck possession time, scoring chances, GF%, Attempted Shots and other key categories), Pittsburgh and Winnipeg are running neck and neck. They are both top 10 in several of those categories with Winnipeg slightly ahead of Pittsburgh in puck possession time in the offensive end during five-on-five play but that, too, is misleading. You see, Winnipeg plays in the West and as a result of many garbage teams, they have played the 28th ranked Strength of Schedule (SOS) in the NHL out of 32 teams. The Jets have played two top-10 teams this entire year and just four top-16 teams. Incidentally, they are 1-3 against top-16 and 1-1 v top-10. Therefore, the Jets strong puck possession numbers have come against dwellers. In the four games they played against top-16 teams (Edmonton x2 St. Louis and Minnesota), the Jets puck possession numbers are horrific. They lost the puck possession time battle in all four games and two of them were landslides.

By contrast, Pittsburgh, despite playing most of the season without several key pieces, have played the 15th ranked SOS and they are 4-4 against top-10 teams and 5-5 against top-16 teams. One must take all the underlying stats with a grain of salt because not everything is equal. Pittsburgh has won the time of possession battle in the offensive end against some very good teams and did so without Crosby, Malkin, Rust, Carter and others missing. Aside from Malkin, everyone is back in the lineup for Pittsburgh and we can almost assure you that they will outplay the Jets by a significant margin. That doesn’t guarantee jack in this sport but we know we’re probably playing the right side with great value.  

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