Pinnacle -½ +180 BET365 -½ +170 SportInteraction -½ +170 BetOnline -½ +177 Bookmaker -½ +172

Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

Montreal -½ +180 over SAN JOSE

10:38 PM EST. Regulation only. The Sharks play in the worst division in the NHL but their 4-2 record has them overpriced. A close look reveals that in six games, San Jose has won the scoring chance battle just once. That lone advantage came in their first game of the year against Winnipeg. Since then, the Sharkies have been out-chanced in every game and it’s not like they were playing the NHL’s elite. No, San Jose has been out-chanced by the Predators, Senators and these same Canadiens back in Montreal in the second game of the year. When the Sharks lost to Boston, they were out-chanced 19-10. In their 5-3 victory over Toronto, San Jose allowed 35 scoring chances while creating 24. They rank last or dead last in the league in many metrics including ranking 32nd in Expected Goals For (xGF). The Sharks also rank second last in time of possession in the offensive end during five-on-five play. Perhaps San Jose will prove to be a decent underdog but there is no question that they’re overachieving and that they’ve been fortunate. 

Combine San Jose’s 4-2 record with Montreal’s 1-6 record and it creates a buy low/sell high opportunity. The market reacts to wins and losses more than anything else, which will continue to provide us with opportunities such as this. The San Jose Sharks are more living proof that the outcomes of NHL games are mostly luck-driven. Hockey is a highly skilled game but the day to day results are nothing but pure luck, good or bad, which is why Montreal is 1-6 and San Jose is 4-2. 

Analytically speaking, Montreal ranks between 10 and 16 positions higher than the Sharkies in all the key metrics that deal with puck possession time, scoring chances and expected goals. It’s also worth noting that San Jose returns home from a tough, five-game trip here to begin a five-game homestand. That’s a difficult situation to overcome for good teams and we assure you that San Jose is not a good team. 

It would be easy to bail on the Habs here after we bet them and lost last game when they were crushed 5-1 by Seattle. A key betting concept that we highly endorse is “sticking with it”. Regardless of outcome, if we trusted Montreal had value in Seattle, then surely they have value here. A common mistake is jumping ship after a team lets you down so let’s stay with it and get right back on the superior team here.      

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