Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:00 PM EST.
Detroit -½ +300 over WASHINGTON
7:08 PM EST. Regulation only. Before the season began, Detroit’s coach Jeff Blashill called the Red Wings’ defense corps the deepest it had been in his time behind Detroit’s bench. Detroit is carrying eight NHL-caliber defensemen such as longtime veterans Nick Leddy, Marc Staal, Danny DeKeyser and Troy Stecher and up-and-comers Filip Hronek, Moritz Seider and Gustav Lindstrom. Blashill is sitting (healthy scratch) guys that could be playing every game because he’s so deep in defensemen. It has created a healthy competition.
Then there’s the guys up front like Tyler Bertuzzi scoring at a goal-per-game pace already. Detroit's got a pair of rookies -- Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider -- who are top five in rookie scoring. Add in a solid start from captain Dylan Larkin, Vladislav Namestnikov, Filip Zadina and Michael Rasmussemn and we’re not surprised in the least to see Detroit humming early. This is a dangerous and talented team in the making. They’re also playing with some swag.
PDO, called SPSV% by the NHL, is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage. PDO is measured at even strength and is viewed as a proxy for how lucky a team is. That brings us to the Washington Capitals, the luckiest team in the NHL with a PDO that is way above league average. Of the six games they have played in, the starting goalie has been yanked three times because they couldn’t stop a puck. In their last game, a 7-5 win over Ottawa, the Sens would have pulled two goalies but didn’t have a third on the bench to replace #2. The Caps were being schooled by the young Sens, especially in the second period when the Sens rallied from a 4-1 deficit to tie it 4-4 but Washington would score two cheapies in the final two minutes of period two to change the course of that game.
We’re not suggesting that the Caps are weak. We are, however, suggesting that they are not a top-5 team despite picking up 10 out of a possible 12 points thus far. Washington’s early returns have them overpriced to a stupid degree. At 3-1 to win in regulation, Detroit must be played here.
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Detroit -½ +300 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 6.00)