Updated NHL Series Wager
Minnesota +150 over VEGAS

Pinnacle +140 BET365 +150 SportsInteraction +157 BetOnlinN/A Bookmaker +145

Updated Series Price

MINNESOTA +150 over Vegas

Posted on May 20, before Game 3

The Stanley Cup Playoffs test you in a lot of ways as a bettor. Bankroll management, self-control and not getting swept up in the hype are all keys to set yourself up for success over the two-month grind. One of the best ways to do that is to drown out the noise from the previous game. For instance, the narrative after the series-opener between Vegas and Minnesota is that the Wild “stole” the victory and then justice was served in Game 2.

Sure, Minnesota was outshot by a wide margin in Game 1, especially in the first period, but the Wild are never really fussed about giving up a high volume of shots. During the regular season Minnesota had a 46.8% shot attempt share, but a 52.5% expected goals rate at 5-on-5. That tells you the Wild were regularly out-attempted at even strength, but they were generating the lion’s share of quality scoring chances. This trend held true in Game 1. While Vegas attempted 21 more shots, the expected goals were basically dead even, which tells you that Minnesota’s quality-over-quantity approach was working.

Minnesota’s 5-on-5 defense always makes it an appealing bet as an underdog. The Wild are one of the league’s best teams at preventing high-danger opportunities so the Knights will need to make good on the ones they create. Without Max Pacioretty — or even the fact that he’s not 100% — dings them there. Minnesota is looking progressively sharper while Vegas seems to be a bit on its heels.

Though we don’t know whether Pacioretty will play, there’s simply very little value backing Vegas at these prices whether it’s individual games or the updated series price. It’s not unreasonable to suggest that Minnesota should actually be favored to win this series with the next two games in Minnesota and the series tied 1-1. In what is a 50/50 proposition at worst, and regardless of the outcome, there is value on one side and one side only. This line is out of whack, my friends.

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Our Pick

Minnesota +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)

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N.Y. Islanders +240 over Tampa Bay
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