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Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

SAN JOSE -½ +210 over Minnesota

7:05 PM EST. 10:05 PM EST. Regulation only. One of our wagers last night, L.A. to beat Minnesota, went down in flames, as the Wild cruised to a 4-2 victory. The market and media will see that score but what they won’t see is the truth, which is something we’ll get to in a second.

In our analysis of L.A. over Minnesota, we provided you with this information so allow us to run it by you again, as it is an important piece of information:

Corsi, called shot attempts by the NHL is the sum of shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots. However, today Corsi is used to approximate shot attempt differential for both teams and players, which can then be used to predict future goal differentials. If a team is losing in the goal differential halfway through the season, but possess a high Corsi, the team is creating more chances than their opponents which should result in the goal differential to get better as the team plays more games.

Corsi is used to approximate puck possession – the length of time a player's team controls the puck – and is typically measured as either a ratio (like plus-minus) of shot attempts for less shot attempts against, or as a percentage. Most players will have a Corsi For percentage (CF%) between 40 and 60. A player or team ranked above 55% is often considered "elite".

Why are we mentioning this? We’re mentioning it because in the past five weeks, Minnesota is ranked dead last in CF% among the 31 teams in the NHL. While the Wild are winning a lot of games, it’s only because they have been on the extreme side of great puck luck.

Last night, Minnesota was outshot by the Kings 42-23. Cal Peterson, L.A’s goaltender had a save% of .870 while Cam Talbot’s save % was .952. The Wild were once again under siege for 60 minutes and once again, they came out smelling like a rose. The Minnesota Wild have remarkably won six games in a row while mustering up 22, 18, 28, 24, 23, & 24 shots on net respectively. They were outshot, out-chanced, and out-Corsied in all six games. Prior to beating the Kings last night, Minnesota beat Arizona 4-1 while getting outshot 40-23. This is a Wild team that is under siege right now more than any team in the NHL, yet the keep winning games.

Chasing the puck for 60 minutes is exhausting, which is precisely what the Wild were doing last night and for at least six straight games. They’ll now play their fourth game in six days, third game in four days and tail end of back to back while the Sharks are rested, healthy and grossly underpriced here. This is without question one of the biggest overlays of the year and unless Minnesota gets extremely lucky again, we’re going to cash this ticket. For all our money-line parlay friends, make this one your “key” game.

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