Winnipeg @ OTTAWA
OTTAWA -½ +200 over Winnipeg

Pinnacle  +189 BET365 -½ +200 SportsInteraction N/A 5DIMES -½ +185 Bookmaker -½ +188

Posted at 1:30 PM EST.

OTTAWA -½ +200 over Winnipeg

7:05 PM EST. Regulation only. Here are predictions that will likely turn out to be true. 1), We will be betting the Ottawa Senators quite often over the next four months. 2) It will not be fun.

It’s not that the Sens will be good, but rather because they are not nearly as bad as market perception has them, which should create some buy-low value. The Senators were 30th out of 31 teams in the NHL in 2019-20, but their 5-on-5 numbers largely improved in D.J. Smith’s first season behind the bench. Ottawa’s statistical profile was still underwhelming, but the Sens finished 11th in xGF/60 and boasted a better xGA/60 than seven teams, including the Jets, Canucks and Rangers.

Those may seem like modest successes, but those are the type of data points you want to look out for on a team that the market will largely overlook. There are enough high-ceiling players on this roster that makes them a pesky underdog. The biggest question mark for Ottawa will be in goal. The Senators are making a bet that two-time Stanley Cup winner Matt Murray can find his championship form after two down seasons. Murray was near the bottom of the league with a -13.98 GSAx in 2019-20, but it’s not all that rare for goaltenders to go through peaks and valleys in their careers. A resurgent season from Murray and all of a sudden Ottawa becomes pretty interesting. The Senators should also benefit from the unique circumstances in 2021. A 56-game season will create more variance and the All-Canadian projects to be the most wide-open group in the league, so there are a lot of winnable games on the schedule for a team that will be consistently offered at a big price. And in case you are wondering, Ottawa badly outplayed Winnipeg last game and they have better metrics after the first week. Small sample size yes, but Winnipeg ranks 2nd last or 30th out of 31 teams in puck possession time in the offensive end during five-on-five play.

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Our Pick

OTTAWA -½ +200 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.00)

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Chicago +167 over Ottawa